Iraq: Consequences of the Surge

(Image from AFP)

The Council of Foreign Relations published a comprehensive article in Foreign Affairs that details the effects that the US "surge" in military forces had on the conflict in Iraq.

Though the article makes clear that the surge indeed did contribute to reducing violence against civilians in Iraq, it also argues that it had an effect only in conjunction with many other factors, including:

• "the grim successes of ethnic cleansing" (most of the ethnic cleansing has already been completed)
  
• "the tactical quiescence of Shiite militias" (part of the "ebbs and flows" of insurgencies)
  
• "a series of deals between US and Sunni tribes" (since mid-2007, the US military has been striking deals with anti-al Qaeda Sunni militias -- according to the article, the US has budgeted $150 million to pay Sunni tribes this year)
  

The article further argues that the current "bottom-up" strategy that the US surge is taking (e.g. funding and equipping Sunni militias) has been undermining long term goals of a stable Iraqi state. The following inter-related consequences were highlighted:

• Fostering "retribalization": By empowering local leaders with (corrupt) financial opportunities (e.g. Sunni leaders profiting from these deals), the article argues how these efforts are advancing further splintering of Iraq.
• Growth of "warlordism": The surge has been pursuing this "tribal" empowerment without any regulation to the group's relationship with the state. As a result, the leaders that have profited gain substantial power.
  
• Worsening sectarianism: Distorted perceptions of the US strategy of empowering Sunni leaders have led to emboldened efforts of Shiite leaders such as Moktada al-Sadr to pursue Shiite hegemony.

The article advocates for a complete return to a "top-down" strategy, while responsibly withdrawing troops to cede control of the situation to other international allies such as the European Union. After the US makes a public commitment to a phased, responsible withdrawal; the article hopes for the international community to collectively empower the central government and hold provincial elections, increase humanitarian aid and foreign investments, and intertwine the "tribes" that have been empowered by the US surge to the central government.

Though the conclusion is well-argued, one aspect the article fails to take into account are the pros that come from a "bottom-up" approach. Particularly in a country like Iraq where the interests of each group have become so entrenched and deeply-rooted in preserving their identity, it is critical that all these views are represented properly in national political dialogue. Empowering local communities, if done properly, is a necessary step in jump-starting post-conflict progress for peace and unity. Therefore, rather than advocating for a complete 180, the strategy going forward for long-term unity in Iraq requires both a "top-down" approach combined with a considerable degree of responsible "bottom-up" tactics to ensure that all groups are satisfied in the representation they have. Without this balance, the consequences of the surge that the article lists will most likely never be resolved.