Darfur: Early steps to war?

(Image from Sudan Tribune)

Actus Rei's latest post on Darfur highlighted a series of aerial bombardments that have been targeting marketplaces and schools in Darfurian villages. Other forms of violence have been continuing as well, as disputes over the skewed, national census led to fighting in South Darfur that reportedly forced 12,000 refugees to flee the region.

Frustrations mounting, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), a prominent Islamist rebel group, launched a rapid invasion towards Khartoum, the Sudanese capital, 400 miles away from the Darfur region. On May 11, hundreds of JEM soldiers with allegedly 700 vehicles forcefully invaded through the Kordofan region (neighboring Darfur) and began to attack the major city of Omdurman near the capital. As the rebels reached the capital, the Sudanese government fought the rebels back after declaring a citywide curfew, deploying attack helicopters, and sending hundreds of troops.

The attack led the government to start a massive hunt for rebels within Khartoum that reportedly fed the JEM information regarding the Sudanese army. The government called for the immediate arrest of Khalil Ibrahim, the head of JEM, and announced a US$246 million bounty. Human Rights Watch suspects that the government is systematically rounding up and arresting over 100 opposition members and fears for the conditions in which they will be placed while detained.

Meanwhile, per usual, Sudan accused its neighbor Chad of supporting the rebel attack and cut off diplomatic relations. In response, Chad denied any involvement, proceeding to close its borders to Sudan, ban Sudanese airlines to the country, and freeze assets in Sudanese banks.

So what does this mean? Given the rebels' insufficient numbers for a successful coup, this attack left the world puzzled as to what exactly its purpose was...is this the beginning of the breakout of all-out war? Khalil Ibrahim said on Monday that JEM will continue attacks until the government fell and that: "this is just the start of a process and the end is the termination of this regime." Experts have begun to throw out there that this may be a turning point for the Sudanese regime to pursue serious negotiations with the opposition. We can only hope that this is the case.